Key insights
- J.P. Morgan anticipates two ECB rate hikes in April and July due to rising inflation risks, a significant shift from previous expectations of steady rates. While the ECB held rates steady at 2% this week, policymakers signaled potential future hikes. This hawkish pivot in Europe could indirectly pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy, posing a slight bearish risk to US equities.
March 20 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan on Friday said it expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver two rate hikes in April and July, in sharp contrast to its previous forecast of steady rates through 2026, as policymakers signaled at rate hike discussions due to rising inflation risks.
The sudden shift comes after the ECB kept its key interest rate at 2% on Thursday, but policymakers expect to discuss hikes in the coming months as the Iran war threatens to push up inflation in the euro zone.