Key insights
- Substack write-ups highlight potential upside in NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, AXON, and GEN. NVDA's AI server economics are compelling. MSFT's valuation is fair but lacks a margin of safety. AMZN's AWS cloud AI revenue is growing rapidly. AXON's growth is strong but FCF is negative. GEN is undervalued with high FCF yield. These analyses offer insights into large-cap tech and growth stocks.
A new round of company write-ups from Substack from the last week or so.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: https://gilescapital.substack.com/
Americas
AlphaSeeker84 on NVIDIA (🇺🇸 NVDA US - US$4.5tn) Each AI server rack generates $40-130M in annual revenue against a $3M hardware cost, paying for itself in weeks. That pricing power sustains 77-80% operating margins through 2029.
Hated Moats on Microsoft (🇺🇸 MSFT US - US$2.8tn) Discounted cash flow analysis pins fair value at $422 against a $371 share price, but the 12% gap falls short of the 15% margin of safety most value investors require. AI spending at 25% of revenue clouds near-term returns.
sanj2f3 on Amazon (🇺🇸 AMZN US - US$2.5tn) AWS cloud AI revenue hit a $15B annual run rate in Q1 2026 with its custom-designed server chips nearly fully booked. $200B in planned infrastructure spending is backed by committed customer contracts.
AlphaSeeker84 on Axon Enterprise (🇺🇸 AXON US - US$28bn) The body camera and conducted energy weapon maker serves 17,000 of 18,000 US law enforcement agencies with 125% annual revenue expansion per customer. Trades at 35x adjusted cash flow, but negative free cash flow demands a lower entry point.
Value Don't Lie on Gen Digital (🇺🇸 GEN US - US$11bn) The Norton and Avast cybersecurity owner trades at 7x forward earnings with a 13.6% free cash flow yield. Stock is down 43% from highs while management deployed $700M last quarter in buybacks and debt repayment.
Fermat Capital on Instacart (🇺🇸 CART US - US$10bn) Controls 70% of US online grocery orders above $75 where picking accuracy and perishable quality create switching costs competitors cannot match. Advertising revenue exceeds $1B annually at near-total profit margins.
WinterGems on Celsius Holdings (🇺🇸 CELH US - US$9bn) The energy drink maker's April 2025 acquisition of fitness brand Alani Nu gives the combined group 27% US market share, closing on Monster's lead. Projected $3.5B 2026 revenue at 22% operating margins.
Canadian Value Stocks on E-L Financial (🇨🇦 ELF TSX - CAD$6bn) TOP PICK 4.8x earnings and 59% of book value on a C$6B holding company with zero analyst coverage. The Jackman family has compounded net asset value at 12.4% annually since 1969 through its wholly-owned life insurer and investment portfolio.
Wealthy Readings on Sigma Lithium and Intuitive Machines (🇧🇷 SGML, 🇺🇸 LUNR - US$1.7bn, US$3.8bn) Sigma is the lowest-cost lithium producer in the Americas at $592 per tonne, doubling capacity to 520,000 tonnes. Intuitive Machines holds a $4.82B NASA contract as the preferred partner for lunar cargo delivery.
Alex Feng on Cooper-Standard (🇺🇸 CPS US - US$500m) The world's largest automotive sealing maker repriced all new contracts 500 basis points higher in 2022, and those deals are now entering production with 100% of 2026 bookings locked in. CEO holds a $12.1M personal stake.
Waterboy Stocks on Maui Land & Pineapple (🇺🇸 MLP US - US$322m) TOP PICK 22,286 acres of irreplaceable Maui land still carried at 1911 purchase prices on the balance sheet. Estimated land value of $21-26 per share against a $16 stock price, with AOL co-founder Steve Case owning 60% and buying more.
Wolf of Oakville on Glow Lifetech (🇨🇦 GLOW TSXV - CAD$9m) Canadian health supplement company doubled revenue to $2.05M in 2025 with 31% insider ownership and cash on hand, but Q4 sales dropped 19%. Trading at 4.5x revenue with 2,000+ new retail distribution points entering 2026.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Acid Investments on Montana Aerospace (🇨🇭 AERO SW - CHF 1.4bn) Pure-play aircraft parts maker with contracts that take 2-7 years to win and lock in revenue for 5-13 years. Trading at 6.7x forward cash flow as EUR 800M in new factories ramp toward 20%+ margins.
The International Investor on MCH Group (🇨🇭 MCH SIX - CHF 114m) The company behind Art Basel grew revenue 18.8% annually to CHF 389M and swung from a CHF 72M loss to CHF 19M profit. James Murdoch's investment firm Lupa Systems holds a 41.8% stake.
Asia-Pacific
StockOpine on Grab (🇸🇬 GRAB US - US$15bn) Southeast Asia's ride-hailing and delivery leader paid $600M for food delivery operations in Taiwan at half its own valuation multiple. The high-density 23M-population market delivers stronger unit economics than Grab's regional average.