Key insights
- German tax revenue increased 3.6% YoY in March, but the finance ministry suggests a slight decline without one-off factors. Rising energy prices create uncertainty for future revenue due to VAT increases offsetting potential consumption decreases. The German government halved its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% due to the conflict in Iran, while raising inflation projections. This could signal weaker economic activity in Europe, indirectly impacting US equities.
By Maria Martinez
BERLIN, April 21 (Reuters) - Germany’s federal and state government tax revenue rose by 3.6% in March compared with the same month a year ago, the finance ministry said in its monthly report on Tuesday.
The year-on-year comparison is skewed by one-time factors such as effects in import VAT and non-assessed taxes on earnings, and the ministry noted that without these factors, there would likely have been a slight decline.
Total tax revenue in March reached 89.3 billion euros ($105.25 billion), according to the report.
Tax revenue for the January to March period rose by 0.9% from the same period in 2025, to 224.2 billion euros.
The report noted that the impact of rising energy prices was not yet clear for future readings, given the likely increase in VAT due to higher prices balanced against the possible decrease in tax paid due to less energy being consumed.
The German government has halved its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5% growth, while raising its inflation projections due to the conflict in Iran, a source told Reuters on Thursday.
Tax experts see tax revenue increasing to 926.9 billion euros in 2026, up 2.8% from the previous year, according to the report.
($1 = 0.8485 euros)