Key insights
- UBS forecasts a generational boom in the global semiconductor industry, driven by agentic AI, with revenues projected to reach $2.38 trillion by 2027. Memory semiconductors are expected to see significant growth. The firm highlights positive cycle indicators and favors wafer fabrication equipment and AI logic semiconductor stocks, including Applied Materials, ASML, and Micron Technology. This strong sector outlook suggests robust demand and potential upside for related US equities.
Investing.com -- UBS is forecasting a substantial expansion in the global semiconductor industry, projecting revenues will reach $2.38 trillion by 2027 as agentic AI drives broad-based demand across memory, logic, and CPU segments.
Analyst Nicolas Gaudois told clients in a note that UBS forecasts semiconductor industry sell-in to hit $1.62 trillion in 2026, up 118% year-over-year, before climbing a further 46% to $2.38 trillion in 2027.
Memory semiconductors are expected to lead the charge, with revenues forecast at $961 billion in 2026, up 318% year-over-year, rising to $1.638 trillion in 2027.
Gaudois attributed much of the momentum to agentic AI, which UBS said is "boosting not only HBM but also DDR5/LPDDR5 and NAND flash demand."
CPU revenues are also forecast to grow strongly, reaching $75 billion in 2026 and $96 billion in 2027, despite what UBS described as a sluggish PC market.
While UBS acknowledged that year-over-year growth rates will inevitably decelerate from elevated levels, the firm said other cycle indicators "remain in the green," including foundry utilization rates, assembly equipment revenues, and memory industry operating profits, all pointing upward into late 2027.
UBS added that upside risk from AI, extending beyond accelerators and HBM into CPU, DRAM, NAND, networking, and power management, "could continue to push out the inflexion point in the cycle."
On stock positioning, UBS favors wafer fabrication equipment stocks and AI logic semiconductors and is "less sanguine on Analog."
Names included in the bank’s most preferred list include Applied Materials, ASML, Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, TSMC, and Texas Instruments.
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