Key insights
- The author argues Tesla's valuation is irrational compared to traditional automakers like Toyota and Volkswagen, citing significantly lower EBITDA relative to its market capitalization. The author contrasts Tesla's $1.1T market cap with its projected $10B EBITDA against Berkshire Hathaway's $1T market cap and $150B EBITDA. The piece suggests potential overvaluation in Tesla, driven by hype rather than fundamentals, and highlights concerns about Cathie Wood's investment approach.
Today I watched a podcast where the guest was Cathie Wood from ARK. In the middle of the interview, she said that Tesla is going to be a $10 trillion company. I’ve seen and heard this claim from Elon Musk and his fans before, but from a “professional” investor? That honestly shocked me.
I came to the conclusion that Tesla is the perfect example of how the market can be irrational.
I decided to look at the basic numbers of the car manufacturing industry.
Top 3 car manufacturers by EBITDA:
Toyota (2025): $46.0B
Volkswagen (2025): $52.0B
Hyundai-Kia (2025): $19.0B
Combined EBITDA: $117.0B
Combined market cap: ~$515B
Tesla (2025):
EBITDA: $10.0B
Market cap: $1.1 trillion (up 20% in 2026)
For comparison;
Berkshire Hathaway (2025):
EBITDA: $150.0B
Market cap = $ 1 T
PS: Tesla is a car manufacturing company. Only when they make more than 10% its revenue from robots will I consider calling it something else.
Make it make sense.
Edit: I just found out that Cathie Wood apparently lets God guide her on which stocks to pick. That says a lot.