5 big analyst AI moves: Bullish on Google stock near-term; Tesla upgraded

Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

Citi has placed Alphabet on a 90-day upside Catalyst Watch, with analyst Ronald Josey pointing to a packed event schedule through July 13 as potential fuel for the stock. The move comes "given a favorable catalyst path," with a string of product showcases and earnings across the coming weeks, Josey said.

Google Cloud Next runs April 22–24, first-quarter results land April 29, YouTube’s Brandcast follows May 13, and Google I/O and Google Marketing Live both fall on May 19–20. Citi expects "product updates around Google’s Gemini models, Search, YouTube, and Cloud offerings" across these events.

Underpinning the thesis are solid fundamentals. The online advertising environment is described as "relatively healthy," supporting continued Search revenue momentum. Gemini is gaining consumer traction — now at "750M+ MAUs" — while also expanding into enterprise through Gemini Enterprise. Google Cloud demand "remains robust," Josey noted.

Taken together, the analyst sees Alphabet as positioned to clear the bar Wall Street has set. "We believe Google could report revenues and operating income above consensus projections as newer products and services are announced over the next several weeks," he wrote.

This week, UBS lifted its Tesla rating to Neutral from Sell, citing a more balanced risk-reward after a bruising stretch for the stock, while leaving its $352 price target untouched.

Analyst Joseph Spak acknowledged the weight Tesla is carrying: shares are down more than 21% in 2026, dragged by softening EV demand, a first-quarter energy shortfall, rising costs, and sluggish progress on both its robo-taxi and Optimus programs. Yet Spak stopped short of turning outright bullish.

"However, we do expect eventual progress on robo-taxi and Optimus and continue to view TSLA as a leader in physical AI," he added.

Spak flagged that sentiment and momentum are the key drivers of Tesla stock, more than fundamentals, warning that "the stock may continue to exhibit high volatility."

On the core auto business, UBS sees 1.6 million deliveries in 2026 — roughly flat year-on-year — growing at a 7% compound annual rate to around 2 million by 2030. That sits well below the Street consensus of 3 million, with Spak pointing to Chinese competition, weak U.S. EV demand, and a thin product pipeline as structural headwinds.

The robo-taxi program is a key swing factor. Tesla has indicated it aims to be operating in nine cities by mid-2026, but Spak flagged the slow pace of its Austin rollout as a concern, and he does not expect meaningful near-term scaling.

On Optimus, he believes the humanoid robot timeline "will take longer than Musk’s stated targets," complicated by reliance on Chinese parts.

UBS models roughly 5,000 units in 2027 and 30,000 by 2030 — a far cry from Musk’s high-volume ambitions for next year.

Needham analyst Laura Martin this week urged investors to use the post-earnings pullback in Netflix as a buying opportunity. Shares fell nearly 10% Friday after the company’s second-quarter outlook fell short of expectations and chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings announced he would not seek re-election at the June annual meeting.

The earnings picture was mixed: Netflix beat first-quarter revenue and profit estimates, but its current-quarter EPS guidance disappointed and revenue growth is projected at its slowest pace in a year.

But Martin sees the selloff as overdone. She pointed to Netflix’s expansion into mobile engagement features — vertical video, video podcasts, and kids games — as products she believes "will lower churn, add pricing power, and improve LTVs."

She also flagged Netflix’s focus on cultivating fan communities around its content, calling it "every media company’s job to be done." "In old media, NFLX does this best, alongside DIS, we believe," she added.

Beyond content, Martin argued Netflix’s technology DNA gives it a structural edge, citing early moves into generative AI, programmatic advertising, and personalized recommendations as differentiators the legacy media pack will struggle to match.

UBS and Deutsche Bank both lifted their ASML price targets to €1,600 from €1,500 following the Dutch chipmaker’s better-than-expected first-quarter results, with both firms reiterating Buy ratings.

The upgrades were driven by ASML raising its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10-22% year-on-year, up from a prior range of 4-19%, on stronger demand for immersion lithography tools from logic and memory chipmakers.

UBS responded by nudging its 2026-2028 EPS estimates up 3-5%, putting its 2027 forecast 10-15% above consensus.

A central focus for investors is ASML’s production capacity for its low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet machines, with the company guiding to shipments of at least 60 low-NA EUV tools this year and at least 80 in 2027.

Deutsche analyst Robert Sanders singled out the 2027 figure as particularly meaningful, saying it gave investors "confidence in the strong growth story."

"The key question from here is whether a further wave of orders could lead to ASML raising this view on 2027 to 90 units at the Q2 results, or whether a number higher than 80 units could be capped by clean room constraints and a lack of pedestals," he added.

Further out, the analysts pointed to High NA EUV tools as another potential catalyst, noting that orders would need to be placed in the second half of 2026 to enable installation by 2028 for high-volume manufacturing.

Bank of America reiterated its bullish view on Dell this week, with analyst Wamsi Mohan arguing the PC and server giant is best placed to ride the ongoing spending cycle. Mohan notes that AI server demand is "intact and growing in 2026 despite recent memory inflation," supported by steady enterprise uptake and manageable memory costs relative to overall build expenses.

BofA forecasts AI server unit volumes climbing 28% this year, with average selling prices up 50%, pushing total industry revenue to roughly $495 billion — more than twice last year’s figure. Dell is projected to capture around 12% of that market, translating to $60 billion in AI server revenue, well ahead of the company’s own $50 billion guidance.

The bank’s confidence is partly rooted in Dell’s history of outperformance. The company booked $25 billion in AI server revenue last year against an opening target of just $15 billion.

BofA links Dell’s pricing premium — average selling prices running 82% above the industry norm — to a heavier mix of Nvidia and AMD GPUs and stronger exposure to Tier 2 cloud customers.

Looking out to 2030, BofA sees industry revenue compounding at 26% annually, driven by rising GPU complexity and expanding attach rates across networking and storage.