Key insights
- The author believes Tesla is currently priced for perfection and suggests waiting for signs of business slowdowns before investing. They eyeball a price in the low $200s as a potential entry point, considering the company's future potential in areas like robotics and FSD. This implies a slightly bearish short-term outlook, but a bullish long-term view if Tesla executes on its growth initiatives.
Please do not see the name and hate immediately. Tesla is a good company that is misunderstood by many.
There are many things that could get built and scaled: robotaxi, energy, AI, robotics. And the market cap will be a lot higher if any of these mentioned things actually work out.
Problem is, the stock is now priced for perfection and it will need perfect execution and historically this will be the worst time to fomo and buy.
However, I don’t think this stock should be valued like other traditional companies where you wait for PE to get to 15x, you should value the business that are not yet here yet - such as robotics, fds. You just need to buy when the business is pricing in slowdowns and cracks in the business.
I am just curious what price and valuation you guys think that point is. For me, an eyeball “business showing cracks” price is in the low 200s. If we see that price I will probably look to open a position by sizing up with some leaps.