Key insights
- Truist Securities downgraded BILL Holdings to Hold due to slowing growth, increased competition, and diminished takeover prospects, while upgrading Global-e Online to Buy citing strong long-term growth in cross-border e-commerce and benefits from recent acquisitions. This sector reshuffling highlights evolving competitive dynamics and growth drivers within fintech.
Investing.com -- Truist Securities downgraded fintech software company BILL Holdings to Hold from Buy while upgrading cross-border e-commerce platform Global-e Online to Buy, arguing that investors should reposition within the fintech sector as competitive and growth dynamics shift.
The brokerage said BILL faces slowing revenue growth, fewer near-term catalysts and rising competitive pressure. Truist expects the company's core revenue growth to ease from the mid-teens to the low-teens next year as competition from rivals such as Brex, Ramp and Fiserv intensifies and payment monetization becomes more challenging amid the emergence of AI-driven payment optimization and stablecoin infrastructure.
The firm also noted that the likelihood of a takeover, previously viewed as a potential catalyst, has diminished given uncertainty surrounding software valuations in the AI era. BILL recently announced a significant workforce reduction and has seen senior executive departures, adding to concerns about execution and growth.
Truist cut its price target on BILL to $38 from $45, while maintaining forecasts for margin improvement and earnings growth through cost controls and share repurchases.
By contrast, Truist upgraded Global-e, citing stronger long-term growth prospects driven by expanding cross-border e-commerce demand, accelerating merchant additions and expectations that gross merchandise volume from Shopify's Managed Markets offering will quadruple over the next several years. The brokerage believes Global-e's recent acquisition of Passport Global strengthens its competitive moat by enhancing fulfillment capabilities and shipping optimization.
Truist expects Global-e's gross merchandise volume to grow about 30% annually in 2027 and 2028, with Managed Markets contributing an increasing share of that growth. The firm raised its price target on the stock to $39 from $34 and forecasts Global-e's earnings per share will grow at a compound annual rate of roughly 52% between 2026 and 2028.
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