Key insights
- OPEC forecasts strong global oil demand growth through 2030 and beyond, citing policy shifts favoring oil consumption in the US and Europe, and slower EV adoption. This outlook, contrasting with IEA projections, suggests sustained energy security focus and affordability concerns may support oil prices. While not directly impacting US equities, sustained high energy costs could influence inflation and Fed policy, creating a mixed to slightly bearish signal for broader markets due to potential inflationary pressures and slower disinflation.
Investing.com -- OPEC maintained its projection for strong global oil demand growth through 2030 and raised its longer-term outlook on Thursday, pointing to policy changes worldwide that favor oil consumption.
The organization said global oil demand will climb to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 105.1 million bpd in 2025. Both figures remain largely unchanged from last year's World Oil Outlook report.
The report comes as OPEC faces challenges in 2026, including the Iran war that has forced Gulf exporters to reduce exports. The United Arab Emirates left the organization after nearly 60 years of membership.
OPEC attributed the expected growth to policy shifts in the United States, Europe and other regions, along with long-term expansion in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. The group said China's progress in adopting renewable energy has not altered the overall demand trajectory.
The organization noted that governments have placed greater emphasis on energy security and affordability, leading to policy adjustments that support oil demand over the medium and long term. OPEC pointed to slower electric vehicle adoption in Europe and changes by President Donald Trump's administration affecting renewable energy support, electric vehicles and fuel efficiency standards as examples.
For 2050, OPEC raised its demand forecast to 124 million bpd from 122.9 million bpd projected in the previous report. The group repeated its position that oil demand will not peak in the foreseeable future.
The International Energy Agency forecast in November that oil demand will reach 113 million bpd by mid-century, significantly below OPEC's estimate.
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