Key insights
- The post questions whether the historical 10% annual return for the S&P 500 is still achievable given increased market volatility driven by factors like AI hype, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. This suggests a potentially lower return environment for US equities.
Does the classic “10% per year” return expectation for the S&P 500 still hold in today’s market environment?
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 10% annually over long time periods when dividends are included. But with the market moving so aggressively lately, it honestly feels like we see 10% swings every other month. Massive rallies, sharp corrections, AI hype, rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and retail speculation have made the market feel far more volatile than what many investors were used to a decade ago.
What do you guys think?