Key insights
- This analysis provides a valuation of TJX Companies, suggesting it is currently overvalued based on multiple analyst estimates and a self-calculated fair value of $110.83. While the stock is deemed overvalued, it is recommended for a watchlist as a potential purchase candidate, indicating a neutral short-term outlook for its impact on the broader US equity market.
TLDR: My Fairvalue calculation puts TJX at $110. Monringstar and CFRA fairvalue calculation for TJX are at 125 and 128 respectively. TJX is overvalued but worthy to be on a watchlist as a potential purchase candidate.
0 TJX Companies $TJX FY End: 31st Jan This report: Q1-FY2026 Today: June 3 2026
1 SP:153.69 Market Cap 170B RevenueL 61.58B
2 EPS (TTM) 5.15, (Adjusted TTM): 5.00 (Zack's): 5.00
3 Yield (Div): 1.14 (Buybacks): 1.29
4 ROA, ROE, ROIC: 17, 61.25, 24.68%
5 P/E (TTM): 29.84, (Norm): 30.74 (5 year average): 28.32 (fwd): 30.54
6 Debt / Equity: 1.36, Net Debt / Ebitda = <1
7 FCF/NI Average over 5 and 10 years > 80%
8 Past Growth (Stated)
|Metric|TTM-YOY (%)|1-Yr CAGR (%)|3-Yr CAGR (%)|5-Yr CAGR (%)|10-Yr CAGR (%)| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Revenue|9.24|7.12|6.53|13.44|6.91| |Net Income|28.57|12.95|16.24|127.34|9.20| |EPS|-24.68|14.32|17.92|133.61|11.33|
Additional data: Log Linear regression analysis shows that from 2000 to 2026 but excluding covid struck FY21, the cagr growth rate was between 12.83% - 13.68% with 98.2% accuracy.
9 Past Growth (CAGR manually calculated):
a. Precovid from End Jan 2017 to End Jan 2020: 14.97%
b. Postcovid from End Jan 2023 to 2026 End Jan: 14.88%
c. whole peroid: 11.54%
10 Management Guidance for 2027-End Jan (FY27) :
SSS between 3% to 4%
Sales between 63.2 to 63.7b
Diluted EPS between 5.08 to 5.15
11 Forward 3-5 years Growth Estimates (CAGR) :
a. CFRA: 5%
b. MS-NR: 9% (stated), 9.51% (manually calculated)
c. Zacks: 8.9%
d. Argus: 12%
e. Refinitiv : 9%
f. SA: 8.937 (stated), 8.98 to 9.7% (manually calculated)
g. DCF dot com (manual): 9.7%
12 My fair value calculation
Assumptions:
5 year duration of abnormal profits
Discount 9%, terminal growth rate: 3%
Base = $5 (TTM EPS)
Growth rate = 9%
Fair Value Multiplier = 22.16x
My Fair Value = $110.83
13 Morningstar Fairvalue for TJX: $125, CFRA at $128.18
Conclusion, it is overvalued when compared to today's price, but not by too much. It is high quality enough to be worthy to be on a watchlist as a potential future purchase candidate.