How many of you have actually calculated your returns against the S&P, properly, and how many are just assuming you're beating it because your portfolio is green?

REDDIT.COMJun 17, 3:31 PM UTC

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  • This post questions the actual performance of retail investors who actively pick stocks versus passively investing in the S&P 500. The author details a rigorous calculation of their own returns, accounting for time-weighting, deposits/withdrawals, taxes, and cash drag, finding their active strategy slightly underperformed the index after taxes and significant time investment. The piece suggests many retail investors overestimate their performance due to psychological biases like survivorship and selective memory, implying a potential for broader underperformance in active retail strategies.
How many of you have actually calculated your returns against the S&P, properly, and how many are just assuming you're beating it because your portfolio is green?

I've been picking individual stocks alongside an index core for a couple of years now and if you asked me at a party I'd tell you I'm outperforming, but last month I actually sat down and ran the numbers the way you're supposed to, time-weighted, adjusted for every deposit and withdrawal, after taxes on realized gains, and accounting for the cash drag from money sitting in my brokerage earning basically nothing while I waited for the right entry point. That idle cash was sometimes 15 to 20% of my active allocation for months at a time and I never mentally counted it as part of my stock-picking performance, but it is. The result is that my active sleeve returned roughly 11.2% annualized over the years, SPY did 10.8% over the same period, so I "beat" the index by about 40 basis points before I factor in short-term capital gains taxes which wipes out the gap entirely. After tax I'm probably behind by 30 to 50bps and that's before I put any value on the hundreds of hours I spent reading 10-Ks and watching earnings calls.

I don't think I'm uniquely bad at this, I just think most retail stock pickers are in a similar spot and just haven't done the math honestly. The positions you remember are the ones that doubled, the ones you quietly sold at a loss or held through a 40% drawdown somehow don't factor into the narrative you tell yourself, and survivorship bias in your own portfolio is a real thing. So for the active investors here, have you actually run this calculation?

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