Key insights
- The author is bullish on Zoom due to its stake in Anthropic, which is rapidly growing and expected to IPO in 2026. They believe Zoom's market cap undervalues its core business and cash reserves, especially considering the potential value of the Anthropic stake. The Anthropic IPO is seen as a catalyst for Zoom's stock, as it will reveal the true value of this investment.
I’m long Zoom. $51M Anthropic stake from May ‘23. Anthropic now at ~$350B. Stake worth $2-4B.
OpenAI worth ~$850B+ with no clear path to monetization. Anthropic at $30B ARR, fastest enterprise revenue growth in human history, new highly intelligent models in the pipeline. Profitable next year with IPO expected October ‘26.
ZM mkt cap ~$25B. $7.9B net cash. Take out cash + Anthropic stake and find core business is $15B EV on $1.1B EBIT, 12x fwd p/e, 30% OCF growth with active buybacks.
Anthropic IPO is the catalyst. Every new valuation estimate makes Zoom more attractive. Arguably the best asset for Anthropic exposure pre-IPO. The prospectus is when we find out what this is actually worth.