Key insights
- Jefferies lowered its price target on Vistra Energy (VST) to $192 from $203, citing valuation. Despite recent earnings miss and PJM reform concerns, Jefferies maintains a Buy rating, noting potential upside from future data center contracts. Scotiabank also maintains an outperform rating. Vistra's aggressive share buybacks and contracted EBITDA suggest a potentially undervalued stock, but the market impact is limited.
Investing.com - Jefferies lowered its price target on Vistra Energy (NYSE:VST) to $192 from $203 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.
The firm cited the company’s valuation metrics as a compelling entry point. Vistra Energy trades at an approximately 11% fiscal year 2028 free cash flow yield excluding buybacks, equivalent to 8 times enterprise value to EBITDA, with 20% of EBITDA contracted. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 71.76 and an EV/EBITDA of 13.41 based on the last twelve months as of Q4 2025, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at current levels relative to its Fair Value.
The stock remains down approximately 30% since September 2025, though shares have delivered a 30.5% return over the past year. The company has announced Texas and PJM data center nuclear contracts and completed the Cogentrix acquisition during this period. InvestingPro data reveals management has been aggressively buying back shares, one of 12 exclusive ProTips available to subscribers, alongside a comprehensive Pro Research Report that transforms complex data into actionable intelligence.
Jefferies stated that shares are not pricing in upside from future data center contracts. The firm noted that ongoing PJM reform remains an overhang on the stock.
The analyst characterized the risk-reward profile as having asymmetric upside skew despite the current market concerns.
In other recent news, Vistra Energy reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, which fell short of market expectations. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.13, missing the forecasted $2.33, resulting in an EPS surprise of -8.58%. Additionally, revenue came in at $4.58 billion, below the anticipated $5.3 billion, reflecting a revenue surprise of -13.58%. Despite this, Scotiabank maintained its Sector Outperform rating on Vistra Energy, citing a strong outlook and noting that the company’s adjusted EBITDA of $1,742 million exceeded both its own and consensus estimates. BMO Capital also raised its price target for Vistra Energy, highlighting the company’s financial flexibility and reaffirming an Outperform rating. In financial activities, Vistra Corp. announced the pricing of a $4 billion private offering in senior notes across four tranches. The company has also launched a private offering of senior unsecured notes to qualified institutional buyers. These developments reflect Vistra’s ongoing financial strategies and market positioning.
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