Key insights
- The author expresses concern about overpriced equities and real estate in a post-ZIRP environment, questioning investment strategies given high inflation and low returns on debt. They speculate on the potential for economic reset and difficulty in generating returns over the next five years, suggesting a bearish outlook for US equities due to valuation concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty.
stocks are overpriced - huge inflation, trading way above "value" P/E analytical levels
houses are overpriced in areas where reasonable incomes can be readily had (think coastal cities, etc) - 50-100% inflation in price in the last 5-10 years
for so long, the play was just buy equities because loans/bonds basically didn't pay off (hence the above)
what are people supposed to do now? buy debt and watch the principal inflate or barely get back what they put in? buy overpriced equities because there is no alternative? horde some worthless wealth-storage-vessel or cash hoping for a collapse?
i'm genuinely curious if making any money is cooked over the next 5 years as the economy resets from the 20 before that