This isn't me coming off a high from making money in the recent run up. I actually keep a pretty conservative portfolio.
Bogelheads, in fact most people, believe it is nearly impossible to beat the index. I agree mostly, as I also believe that vast majority of people do not have the temperament, patience, and the knowledge to do so on a sustained basis. We always see statistics that states something along the lines of, 95% of actively managed funds or brokerage accounts cant beat the S&P 500.
HOWEVER, i believe these statistics are also quite misleading.
For example, I keep most of my cash as an emergency fund in ny brokerage account. As my portfolio gets larger, I'm not trying to beat the index woth my whole account as much as I'm trying to beat the index with the proportion of the account that Im comfortable putting in equities.
Lots of people near retirement or in retirement keep a portion of their portfolio in lower returning bonds. This isnt getting beat by the index, this is just purposeful risk management.
For me, I've had a lot of success buying good quality companies and holding them long term, as I'm sure many of you have also.
Is it very hard to beat the index with stock picks? Yes. Can anybody do it? No. Is it as impossible to beat it as everyone makes it seem? I don't think so.