Key insights
- A WallStreetBets post argues that ASTS is undervalued and poised to benefit from increased investor interest in the space sector, particularly satellite connectivity, following SpaceX's potential IPO. It suggests ASTS is a pure-play alternative for investors seeking exposure to this theme. The author believes the market will re-rate ASTS higher as investors recognize its potential in providing global broadband connectivity.
1 year, 1 month, 5 days ago I posted ASTS the space trade will cum. The six word title told you that the thematic trade around the space sector will materialize and that $ASTS was the public pure-play. The stock was $20 that Monday and it closed this Friday at $105. Seems like the space trade came and most wsb commenters were wrong (hard to believe). To quantify this I have compiled the money hating commenters to publicly shame them at the bottom of this post. If you wish to avoid the same fate all you need to do is read, buy, and hold. Space is still undervalued and will re-rate higher(er) in the lead up to the SpaceX IPO.
Now that the street suddenly cares about space we can quickly compile what they don't understand about ASTS (yet). I know that none of you can read outside of a title of a post but if you were paying attention you would know that SpaceX just filed its S-1 prior to their IPO. As the Patagonia vests pour over it this weekend and try to make some money Tuesday they will likely come across ASTS and see the white space the name still has. You can do the same but with less Claude credits by reading this thread.
For those new to the story you can read my DD but in short: ASTS is designing, building, and operating the largest satellites in Low Earth Orbit designed to provide broadband connectivity to every cell phone on earth.
TL;DR (it's okay to admit you can't pay attention for long spans of time)
- SpaceX S-1 shows where the money is. Launch is a commodity; profit is in Starlink-style satellite connectivity. SpaceX is going public at a ~$2T valuation. $ASTS is THE public pure-play leading into the IPO. * SpaceX names ASTS as a competitor in their own risk factors. The biggest space company on Earth named ASTS. * $740B Starlink Mobile TAM quantified by SpaceX themselves. This is a huge market and ASTS is positioned to dominate it. * Constellation ramp: ASTS is set to have 45 sats in orbit by EOY. The next 3 are launching in June — via SpaceX. Yes, SpaceX is launching their named competitor's satellites. Imagine that. More batches are rolling out soon and will show the street that production is up to scale. * Defense / Golden Dome: the same hardware as the commercial sats does space-based radar. Already in use. DoD scaling it. 2026 government revenue will be a "big contributor" per the last earnings call. The street still doesn't understand this capability. The company knows where every cell phone on earth is located. What is that worth? * FCC SCS commercial authority granted. For years the bears (and wsb commenters below) yelled "Elon owns Trump and the FCC. ASTS will never get approval" — wrong. * Spectrum: ASTS holds an 80 year lease of 45 MHz of L-band spectrum for the US. SpaceX just paid EchoStar $17B for 50 MHz of AWS-4 / H-Block - that's the public comp. Apply that comp to the Ligado L-band ASTS controls and sum-of-parts gets you to half of the current market cap on spectrum alone. * US telco JV: ASTS already has Verizon and AT&T. T / VZ / TMUS are forming a Direct-to-Device JV to keep Starlink out; SpaceX is being locked out and blindsided. When TMUS exclusivity rolls off, ASTS owns the satellite layer of the entire US mobile industry. * Big tech is circling: Meta has visited ASTS and is working on WhatsApp connectivity. The question is when Zuckerberg realizes Meta missed the biggest trend after AI and buys a stake in ASTS.
1. SpaceX's S-1 Is My Bull Case
Source: SpaceX S-1
What the market hasn't priced: Launch is a commodity. Money is in connectivity. SpaceX's entire pitch is that the value driver isn't rockets — it's Starlink. They are IPO'ing on the back of the satellite-to-consumer connectivity business (with Grok so Elon can get out of some bags). ASTS is the only public pure-play for a vertically integrated satellite manufacturer. ASTS also isn't burdened by an AI Chatbot that puts women in bikinis. What is the only public comp worth against the massive SpaceX valuation? More than what ASTS trades at today, I figure.
We can break out the segment margins. From the S-1:
|Segment|FY25 Revenue|FY25 Adj EBITDA|EBITDA margin| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Launch|$4,086M|$653M|16%| |Starlink|$11,387M|$7,168M|63%| |AI|$3,201M|($1,237M)|negative|
63% EBITDA margins. Larger than the rocket business that gets all the press. Launch is a 16%-margin commodity. AI is still in the cash-burning $8 burrito and $20 uber anywhere stage of the business.
SpaceX puts a number on the TAM. Direct from the filing:
"There were eight billion mobile connected devices globally. … We estimate the Starlink Mobile market opportunity to be $740 billion … weighted average monthly mobile ARPU of $8 per user."
This is the market ASTS sells into too. ASTS currently has more and better global MNO partnerships than SpaceX.
SpaceX lists ASTS as a competitor in the risk factor section:
"Our Starlink Mobile offering competes with other satellite-to-mobile satellite operators including, among others, AST SpaceMobile, Lynk, Globalstar and Skylo."
When the largest space company in the world flags you by name in their IPO risk factors, that is not bearish.
You can track SPCX and its assumed open price via hyperliquid. Multiply the price shown by the float of 11,870,000,000 shares its currently priced at 2.45 Trillion dollars. With a T. Why own that when you can just own ASTS?
I'm not making a judgment on the SpaceX IPO valuation but if it goes live anywhere near where it is presumed to open then every single public space stock needs to re-rate. They will.
Bonus: a chunk of recent sales in ASTS is SpaceX investors hedging their private SPCX exposure. That hedge collapses the moment they can offload SpaceX post-IPO (thank your 401k for them).
2. Production Ramp Is Real And Accelerating
- 45 satellites in orbit by end of 2026. * Next 3 satellites launch in June via SpaceX. Once production for the next batch is proven (timeline weeks) we will see a slew of new satellites leaving the facility and entering orbit. A constant string of news over the next 6 months will keep momentum on the stock and the company in headlines as the space sector re-rates.
The build-out is happening at the factory level. See the production in action.
3. Golden Dome And The Defense Rerate
I caught flak the last time I wrote about Golden Dome. People can stop now. Direct from the last earnings call:
"Remember, we're currently deploying the largest ever phased arrays in low earth orbit, and that gives us really an unprecedented capability to go to regular, small, low-profile handsets as well as do radar capabilities. And when you look at the backdrop of awards and budgets over the last 3 to 6 months, there's been a real strong uptick as expected in the Space Force budget and in allocations related to Golden Dome."
"RFPs are being issued, awards are being made for key elements of Golden Dome that will relate to us, things that you see that are space-based radar and others. So this is a really big moment for us. You're going to see some revenue coming in through U.S. government that's going to be a big contributor to our 2026 revenue."
And on the defense capability itself, from CEO Abel Avellan:
"I will not be able to describe it on this forum, but basically, it is a non-communication capability that uses the same hardware that we use on our commercial satellites. And that's been in use today."
Translation: the largest phased arrays ever flown in LEO double as space-based radar. The DoD is already using it and is scaling it materially. 2026 government revenue is going to be a needle-mover.
When this stock rerates from "communications stock" to "communications AND defense stock," the multiple is not where it is today.
4. FCC SCS Approval — Bears Got Embarrassed
For a year the bear case was "Elon controls Trump and the FCC, ASTS will never get commercial authority." That ended in April 2026:
ASTS has commercial SCS authority. ASTS will continue to gain approvals. The bear case died. What is the value of owning guaranteed parking in space for the largest satellites in low earth orbit? Probably a few bucks.
5. Spectrum Stack Alone Is Worth Most Of The Market Cap
ASTS holds Ligado L-band spectrum for the US — a strategic, scarce, mid-band asset built for satellite-to-mobile.
SpaceX just paid EchoStar $17 billion for 50 MHz of AWS-4 and H-Block to compete in the satellite-to-mobile arena:
"On September 7, 2025, the Company entered into a License Purchase Agreement … with EchoStar Corporation for total consideration of $17,000 million … to purchase EchoStar's rights and licenses related to an aggregate of 50 MHz of spectrum in frequency range