Thinking on this 4-block quant setup for the long term (30+ years). 1.27x Exposure.

REDDIT.COMJun 18, 5:26 AM UTC
Thinking on this 4-block quant setup for the long term (30+ years). 1.27x Exposure.

The nominal split is: 30% QQQ / 30% GDE / 20% PPA / 20% AVDV.

The cool part here is the real effective exposure is ~127%. It uses GDE (Wisdomtree efficient gold), which basically holds 90% SPY and 90% gold futures using T-Bills (And stock) as collateral. So you get leverage without paying broker margin rates or risking a forced account liquidation (you'd need like an immediate -80% drop on both gold and SPY on the same day to wreck the collateral).

I backtested this from 1988 to 2025 using proxies for the newer ETFs (like AVDV and PPA, and GDE (However that one is already pre-built on testfol.io) which lacks a long track record on screen but its Small Cap methodology is similar on ETFs such as: EFV and SCZ) and for PPA just copy the underlying index.. The numbers look like this:

  • CAGR: 14.13% (vs 11.59% for the S&P 500). * Max Drawdown: -53.61%. This is what caught my attention. While pure QQQ collapsed -83% in the dot-com crash and took almost 15 years to recover its ATH, this structure absorbed the hit and recovered in under 5 years because of the gold airbag and defense being low-beta. * Avg Drawdown: -8.75% daily vs -26.54% for QQQ. Psychologically way easier to hold.

For the support blocks, PPA (Defense) brings steady cash flow from long-term government contracts with massive barriers to entry. Then AVDV captures value and size premiums in international markets ex-US, which are less arbitrated than the US.

Even when gold dropped like 60% between 2012-2016 or during the lateral market in the 90s, the strategy kept printing steady returns since the equity engines compensate for the contango drag of the futures contracts.

Btw Taxes are not an issue for me since capital gains tax is 0% in my country anyway.

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