Reddit DD, 2030 valuation

I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030?

This post will examine RDDT's revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 estimate with this data. Then, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to other companies growth so we can then build a simple profile for 2027-2030.

Revenue growth

For 2026, let's see what RDDT has to say about their own growth.

In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%.

Let's do some math to see how much their revenues could increase per quarter if things average the same...

Total revenue Q2 2025 = $500 M, a 78% beat on Q2 '24

Total revenue Q3 2025 = $585 M, a 68% beat on Q3 '24

Total revenue Q4 2025 = $726 M, a 70% beat on Q4 '24

Total revenue Q1 2026 = $600 M, a 53% beat on Q1 '25

As we can see, revenues are increasing quarter to quarter, with the slowest quarter begging Q1, and the average increase being 20.1%. Extrapolate this to 2026 and we get...

Q2 2026 = $721 M

Q3 2026 = $865 M

Q4 2026 = $1039 M

For the full year, if they keep their 20% revenue growth rate per quarter, they'll recieve $3.26 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 47%!

Expenses next

The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses.

Total expenses Q1 2025 = $366 M

Total expenses Q2 2025 = $411 M, 41% up on Q2 '24

Total expenses Q3 2025 = $422 M, 19% up on Q3 '24

Total expenses Q4 2025 = $474 M, 33% up on Q4 '24

Total expenses Q1 2026 = $385 M, 5% up on Q1 '25

As we can see, except for Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference of these numbers gives us expense increase average of 0.5% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, last quarter's 23% decrease in expenses, we get an average expense increase of 8% per quarter. There we go, we got something to work with! Let's extrapolate this 8% increase in expenses to the full year 2026 from Q1 2026.

Q2 2026 = $416 M

Q3 2026 = $449 M

Q4 2026 = $485 M

This gives us a full year expenses of $1735 M. Compared to the $1760 M in 2025, this is a 1.5% decrease or roughly flat... as I stated in my 2030 valuation post.

Next is the EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint.

Taking the numbers we have above and plugging them into a simple EBITDA formula gives us...

Q1 2026 = $215 M

Q2 2026 = $305 M

Q3 2026 = $416 M

Q4 2026 = $554 M

This gives us a full year outlook of $1490 M, compared to the $845 M in 2025 and an increase of 76%! That's with a higher than expected expense rate.

So, now we got the numbers for 2026. For full year 2026, we estimate 47% revenue growth, expense growth of 8%, and EBITDA growth of 76% if things stay consistent.

(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiply the total DAUq by the ARPU values you get the exact revenue for the year... They don't distinguish revenue sources, only noting a single ARPU value for the geographical region that encompasses all revenue for that region. ARPU encompasses AI training data revenue...)

Current user growth rates

We'll start by giving an estimate for 2026. RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for U.S. and "international." So, what are the numbers for 2025...

Q1 US: 50.1 M (ARPU: 6.27); Q1 Int: 58.0 M (ARPU: 1.34)

Q2 US: 50.3 M (ARPU: 7.87); Q2 Int: 60.1 M (ARPU: 1.73)

Q3 US: 51.6 M (ARPU: 9.04); Q3 Int: 64.4 M (ARPU: 1.84)

Q4 US: 52.5 M (ARPU: 10.79); Q4 Int: 68.9 M (ARPU: 2.31)

In 2025 the DAUq for US increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 30.0% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%.

This makes sense. But let's cap the ARPU at a value that matches Meta's.

Other companies user growth rates and ARPU

(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value.)

Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta. But their ARPU is massive in comparison to RDDT at $227 for the US at the end of 2025, and their DAUq growth is higher at roughly 5% for the US. Internationally, Meta has DAUq growth of 6.4% and ARPU of between $16 and $76, depending on the region.

Meta's ARPU of $227 fits their platform as they have roughly 10x the users so let's use that as the max ARPU number for RDDT. We'll give RDDT a max ARPU value 10% of Meta's. Currently though, RDDT has an ARPU roughly 5% that of Meta's. Our max ARPU will be 10% of Meta's US ARPU of $227, or $22.7, and international $39.25, or $3.93. Additionally, as users grow, we'll also increase the ARPU by 3%, as that's roughly what inflation is at.

Future DAUq and ARPU

Okay, RDDT ads have room to run and they have decent user growth... So now we need to get back to the numbers. There's no guidance on DAUq for 2026 so we need to create our own from the our data above...

Q1 US: 53.3 M (ARPU: 14.03); Int: 72.4 M (ARPU: 2.78)

Q2 US: 54.2 M (ARPU: 18.24); Int: 76.0 M (ARPU: 3.34)

Q3 US: 55.0 M (ARPU: 22.70); Int: 79.8 M (ARPU: 3.93)

Q4 US: 55.9 M (ARPU: 23.38); Int: 83.8 M (ARPU: 4.05)

RDDT will have a worldwide DAUq community 1/4 that of Meta's and $5399.9 M in revenue. Subtract the expenses of $1735 M, from above, and we get a net income of $3665 M if they get to 10% of Meta's ARPU this year.

I don't actually think they're going to do that this year, but the historical data does suggest they can.

2027-2030

For 2027 it's the same deal.

Q1 US: 56.8 M (ARPU: 24.08); Int: 88.0 M (ARPU: 4.17)

Q2 US: 57.7 M (ARPU: 24.80); Int: 92.4 M (ARPU: 4.30)

Q3 US: 58.6 M (ARPU: 25.55); Int: 97.0 M (ARPU: 4.42)

Q4 US: 59.5 M (ARPU: 26.31); Int: 101.9 M (ARPU: 4.56)

This gives us an ad revenue of $7519 M, and net income of $5645 M.

For 2028 let's do the same thing...

Q1 US: 60.4 M (ARPU: 27.10); Int: 107.0 M (ARPU: 4.70)

Q2 US: 61.4 M (ARPU: 27.92); Int: 112.4 M (ARPU: 4.84)

Q3 US: 62.3 M (ARPU: 28.75); Int: 118.0 M (ARPU: 4.98)

Q4 US: 63.3 M (ARPU: 29.62); Int: 123.8 M (ARPU: 5.13)

Again, this gives us a revenue of $9287 M, and net income of $7263 M.

2029...

Q1 US: 64.3 M (ARPU: 30.51); Int: 130.0 M (ARPU: 5.28)

Q2 US: 65.3 M (ARPU: 31.42); Int: 136.5 M (ARPU: 5.44)

Q3 US: 66.3 M (ARPU: 32.37); Int: 143.3 M (ARPU: 5.61)

Q4 US: 67.4 M (ARPU: 33.34); Int: 150.5 M (ARPU: 5.77)

Revenue is $11.5 B, and net income of $9.3 B.

And finally, 2030...

Q1 US: 68.4 M (ARPU: 34.34); Int: 158.0 M (ARPU: 5.95)

Q2 US: 69.5 M (ARPU: 35.37); Int: 165.9 M (ARPU: 6.16)

Q3 US: 70.6 M (ARPU: 36.43); Int: 174.2 M (ARPU: 6.31)

Q4 US: 71.7 M (ARPU: 37.52); Int: 182.9 M (ARPU: 6.50)

This gives us a revenue of $14.3 B, and net income of $ 11.96 B

Pretty close, just shy of that $1 trillion market cap, if the P/E multiple is 60 as it currently is. Given the right environment, like a bull market in tech, expenses of less than 8%/q, an ARPU growth rate above 3% then I could see RDDT hitting above the magical $1 T valuation.

There's still have a long way to go, but at least it's possible.