Key insights
- InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis identified Sunrun (RUN) as significantly undervalued in March 2024, despite negative earnings. The models predicted a 50% upside, and the stock subsequently returned 64% by June 2026. This highlights the potential for fundamental analysis to uncover opportunities in volatile stocks, suggesting that similar undervalued companies could offer future investment potential.
In March 2024, when Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) was trading at just $9.51 and posting negative earnings, InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis identified a significant mispricing in the market. The proprietary models flagged the residential solar leader as undervalued with an estimated upside of nearly 50%. Fast forward 27 months, and the stock hit $15.60 in June 2026, delivering an impressive 64% return to investors who recognized the opportunity.
Fair Value analysis helps investors identify stocks trading below or above their intrinsic worth by combining multiple valuation methodologies. This approach provides better entry and exit points by cutting through short-term market noise to focus on fundamental value. For investors seeking similar opportunities today, the Most undervalued list offers current candidates identified by these same analytical models.
Sunrun operates as the leading residential solar and battery storage company in the United States, commanding a 17% market share in solar installations and 42% in storage. When InvestingPro’s Fair Value models flagged the stock in March 2024, the company was navigating challenging conditions with revenue of $2.26 billion, negative EBITDA of -$289 million, and a loss per share of -$7.41. Despite these temporary headwinds, the Fair Value analysis recognized the company’s market leadership position, established customer base, and expanding grid services opportunity as underappreciated assets.
The stock had experienced significant volatility in the six months prior to identification, with monthly returns ranging from -26% to +52%, creating the mispricing opportunity that Fair Value analysis detected.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value models identified RUN as undervalued at $9.51, establishing a fair value target of $14.25—representing 49.84% upside potential. The analysis proved remarkably accurate as the stock not only reached but exceeded this target, hitting $15.60 by June 2026. This 64% total return validated the models’ ability to identify intrinsic value despite challenging near-term fundamentals.
The investment thesis has been supported by substantial fundamental improvements. Revenue increased 40% to $3.17 billion, EBITDA swung dramatically positive to $688 million, and earnings per share turned positive at $2.44. Recent Q1 2026 results beat expectations, with storage attachment rates reaching record levels of 70-73%. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Tesla Electric in Texas, further strengthening its competitive position.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology aggregates multiple valuation approaches including discounted cash flow models, comparable company analyses, dividend discount models, and analyst consensus targets. This comprehensive framework calculates intrinsic worth while incorporating margin of safety principles and future cash flow projections. By synthesizing these diverse methodologies, Fair Value provides a more robust estimate than any single valuation metric.
This successful Sunrun analysis demonstrates how InvestingPro’s Fair Value tools can identify mispriced opportunities before the market recognizes them. Subscribers gain access to Fair Value estimates across thousands of stocks, along with comprehensive financial health scores and real-time analysis. Learn more about InvestingPro to discover today’s most compelling undervalued opportunities identified by the same models that spotted Sunrun’s 64% upside potential.