Key insights
- An individual investor sold their entire ETF portfolio due to concerns about potential supply shocks related to oil and fertilizer stemming from geopolitical tensions. They are now questioning whether this was a prudent move or an attempt to time the market. The post explores the dilemma of reacting to macro events versus sticking to a long-term DCA strategy. The overall US market influence is slightly negative, reflecting increased investor anxiety.
I might be about to learn a hard lesson.
On April 7th, I sold my entire ETF portfolio. I’ve never done anything like that before. I’ve always been a set-and-forget investor, DCA’ing into broad market ETFs.
This time it felt different. I got pretty caught up in the reddit coverage around the Strait of Hormuz and started convincing myself a major correction (or even a crash) is coming.
Now I’m sitting in cash, wondering if I’ve made a clever move or just fallen into the classic trap of thinking I can time the market.
Part of me thinks I’m being disciplined and early. Another part thinks I’ve just let fear (and a bit of greed) take over.
Is anyone else here feeling this way right now? Or have I overreacted to noise and macro headlines?
Also curious how others are thinking about this:
- Do events like this actually shift your long-term strategy?
- Or do you just stick to DCA and ride it out regardless?
Keen to hear some grounded perspectives.