Key insights
- The author suggests Bitcoin's current correction, potentially topping in October 2025 and bottoming in December 2026, could precede a significant stock market downturn. Historically, Bitcoin's 2021 collapse coincided with a ~25% S&P 500 correction. Given Bitcoin's role as a leading indicator ('canary in the coal mine'), a market correction may be imminent.
I think it is safe to say that this Bitcoin cycle saw a top of 126k in October 2025. Looking back to the previous cycle, Bitcoin saw a top of roughly 66k in October of 2021 and a bottom in December 2022. Obviously, much has changed since last cycle… but I’m still expecting this time to rhyme and expect a bottom to be around December of 2026.
We also know that Bitcoin’s collapse in 2021 was accompanied by an inflation fueled stock market correction of about 25% in the S&P shortly after.
With Bitcoin often the canary in the coal mine… I wouldn’t be surprised if our often discussed “market correction” is right around the corner here.
We shall see…