Key insights
- The post discusses a portfolio's outperformance versus the S&P 500 using leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SOXL). The author attributes the gains to market timing during pullbacks and the use of leverage, while acknowledging the role of favorable market conditions and luck. The key question is whether such returns are repeatable or simply a result of a specific market regime. The strategy's reliance on timing and leverage introduces significant risk, making future performance uncertain.
https://ibb.co/dswPGXNp Posting a portfolio vs S&P 500 comparison over ~2 years for discussion.
- Portfolio: ~+108% * S&P 500: ~+40% * Net contributions: none
The equity curve probably looks smoother than it actually felt. Most of the gains came from a few entries around sharper drawdowns rather than steady compounding.
Mainly used leveraged ETFs like TQQQ / SOXL. No options or additional margin leverage on top of that.
Only took a handful of trades overall and spent a lot of time sitting in cash between entries.
Most of the time I’m usually just waiting on cash. I only enter when the market reaches certain conditions I’m comfortable with....not exact price levels, more like specific types of pullbacks/price behavior.
Not claiming this is repeatable or skill-based. Could easily just be favorable conditions + hindsight making it look cleaner than it was in real time.
Trying to understand how much of this kind of outcome is:
- timing * leverage/exposure * or just market regime
Curious how others here would interpret a return profile like this.