Key insights
- GLJ Research reiterates its Sell rating on Tesla, citing concerns over margin dilution from subsidy-driven sales in Korea, despite slightly above-consensus delivery estimates. They highlight a significant decline from peak deliveries and ongoing profitability pressures. While Wedbush maintains an Outperform rating based on AI chip manufacturing plans, GLJ's bearish view suggests potential downside risk for Tesla's stock.
Investing.com - GLJ Research reiterated a Sell rating and $24.86 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Analyst Gordon Johnson released the firm’s final Q1 2026 delivery estimate on Thursday.
The research firm projects Tesla will deliver 368,478 vehicles in Q1 2026, up 0.8% above the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 and up 5.7% from GLJ’s own March 13 estimate of 348,714. The consensus figure was compiled by Tesla investor relations from 23 analysts and published March 26, 2026. The stock currently trades at $362.87 with a market cap of $1.36 trillion, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the company is overvalued at current levels.
GLJ’s delivery model incorporates proprietary VIN-based U.S. production channel checks, CPCA and CNEVPost China production and delivery data, European country-level registration tracking through February 2026, South Korea KAIDA registration data and shipping intelligence, Australian VFACTS and EVC data, Turkey ODMD data, and U.S. Motor Intelligence monthly sales figures.
The firm maintains its Sell rating despite the above-consensus delivery estimate. GLJ notes Tesla’s automotive deliveries represent a 25.9% decline versus the Q3 2025 peak of 497,099 units.
The research firm states the volume increase is driven by margin-dilutive subsidy arbitrage in Korea rather than organic demand recovery and a depressed Q1 2025 base of 336,681 units, which was impaired by the multi-factory Model Y Juniper changeover. Tesla’s gross profit margin of 18% reflects ongoing profitability pressures, a concern highlighted in the company’s comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Tesla Inc. has seen several noteworthy developments. Notably, Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating for Tesla with a price target of $600, citing plans for new chip manufacturing facilities in Austin, Texas. These facilities, including a Terafab facility, are part of Tesla’s strategy to enhance its AI capabilities. RBC Capital also maintained an Outperform rating, setting a $500 price target, and projected Tesla’s vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 to be slightly below consensus estimates. Meanwhile, Barclays reiterated an Equalweight rating with a $360 target, highlighting Tesla’s increasing capital expenditures, which are expected to surpass the $20 billion previously communicated. Additionally, there are speculations from Wedbush about a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla by 2027. These developments reflect ongoing strategic moves and financial outlooks for the company.
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