Key insights
- An analyst questions the bullishness of a prior DD report on Merlin, a defense software company. The original report highlighted a potential $1.6B ARR from contracts on C-130J and KC-135 aircraft. The questioning analyst suggests the original report may have downplayed the risks. This could lead to increased scrutiny and potentially temper enthusiasm for MRLN in the short term.
Came across this DD by Crossroads Capital on $MRLN - seems like a palantir for Military planes? The DD was interesting but it was evident the author didn’t put much effort into identifying the risks, does anyone have a PoV on this company for. 5-6 year investment?
This stood out: Merlin already has over 800 aircraft under contract across platforms like the C‑130J and KC‑135, implying roughly $3 million per tail in upfront integration and $2 million in annual recurring software revenue once fully ramped—a $1.6-billion ARR line of sight within the next several years on just these two aircraft alone