Key insights
- Goldman Sachs initiated Prosus and Naspers at 'neutral' with price targets reflecting a 30-35% discount to NAV. Key concerns include an intense price war in Brazilian food delivery (iFood) due to new competition, leading to significantly lowered EBITDA guidance for iFood and Just Eat. Reduced buyback momentum also contributes to the cautious outlook, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Prosus N.V. (AS:PRX) and Naspers Ltd (JO:NPNJn) at "neutral" on Thursday, setting a €41 price target for Prosus and a ZAR 902 price target for Naspers.
The bank cited insufficient buyback and operational momentum to narrow the current 30% discount to net asset value over the next 12 months, against a historical average discount of 40%.
Goldman Sachs valued Prosus at a one-year forward NAV of $145.58 billion, or €63 per share, applying a 35% NAV discount to derive the €41 price target.
Tencent, in which Prosus holds a 22.7% stake, accounts for 86.2% of the target enterprise value at $123.26 billion attributable to Prosus.
Goldman Sachs used current market value for listed stakes rather than its own Tencent price target of HK$700, which would imply a Prosus valuation of €57 per share, representing 31% upside to the current price of €40.25.
The most immediate pressure flagged by Goldman Sachs comes from Brazilian food delivery, where Meituan-owned Keeta entered the market in October 2025, and 99Food relaunched operations in mid-2025, with the two Chinese-backed competitors committing over $1.50 billion in spending this year.
Prosus guided iFood adjusted EBITDA to decline to $100 million to $150 million in FY27, sharply below the Visible Alpha Consensus Data estimate of $339 million prior to that announcement. Goldman Sachs forecast iFood FY27 adjusted EBITDA of $144 million, which is 56% below the consensus figure of $330 million.
Just Eat, acquired by Prosus in February 2025 for €4.10 billion, is guided by the company to deliver adjusted EBITDA of over $100 million in FY27.
Goldman Sachs forecast $105 million for FY27, which is 43% below the consensus estimate of $183 million for that year.
Goldman Sachs also flagged a reduction in the buyback program. "The company continued to repurchase shares at a c.US$5 bn annual run rate," Prosus chief executive wrote in a May 12 letter to shareholders.
Prosus repurchased $7.30 billion in FY24 and $8.40 billion in FY25. Goldman Sachs estimated $7.30 billion in FY26 before assuming a $5 billion annual pace thereafter.
Goldman Sachs’ scenario analysis showed an $8 billion annual buyback would deliver NAV per share 7% higher by FY30 compared to the $5 billion base case.
OLX, the classifieds business, is forecast to deliver $448 million in adjusted EBITDA in FY26, nearly half of total eCommerce adjusted EBITDA, growing to $800 million by FY30 at a 48% to 52% adjusted EBITDA margin, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
Goldman Sachs forecast total eCommerce adjusted EBITDA of $984 million in FY26 and $2.33 billion by FY30.
Free cash flow from operating assets, excluding Tencent dividends, is forecast at $301 million in FY26, turning negative in FY27 at -$117 million before recovering to $955 million by FY30, according to the Goldman Sachs report.
For Naspers, Goldman Sachs applied the same 35% NAV discount, below the 43% average since the start of 2026, to derive the ZAR 902 price target against a closing price of ZAR 889.64.
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