Key insights
- Apple NEO's delivery wait times are extended (2-4 weeks) in several regions, suggesting strong initial demand. While AAPL's valuation is near its 5-year average, a failure to meet demand could impact its forward P/E of 28. Monitoring delivery times is crucial to assess the sustainability of Apple's current valuation and potential revenue impact.
it looks like Apple NEO is a hit, yesterday i went to Apple Centre Orchard here in Singapore, and they told me that if I ordered it would take 3-4 weeks for delivery.
I got curious and ask Gemini to scour for me the delivery wait time, this is what it got.
|Region|Retail Channel|Estimated Wait Time / Delivery| |:-|:-|:-| |United States|Apple Direct (Online)|2–3 weeks (Early to mid-April)| |United States|Third-Party (Amazon, Target, Best Buy)|Sporadic inventory; 3–7 days| |United Kingdom|Apple Direct (Online)|2–3 weeks| |Australia|Apple Direct (Online)|2–3 weeks| |Europe (e.g., EU)|Apple Direct (Online)|2–3 weeks (Late March to Early April)| |Europe (e.g., EU)|Third-Party / Local Retailers|Immediate to 1 week (varies by region)|
Currently the Apple's valuation is within range of its 5 year average of 29-31 p/e, however the rest of the metrics seem better now than when Buffett bought AAPL at 2016. Back then the forward P/E was 15 - 16. Unlike now where is at 28.
Of course, if NEO has an extended lead time, and AAPL cannot ship fast enough, the current Forward P/E might of 28 might not be accurate.
I think the delivery time is worth monitoring.