Key insights
- The author predicts a significant market downturn within four weeks, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupting oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. This supply shock, coupled with perceived overconfidence among bullish investors due to algorithmic trading, sets the stage for a sharp correction in equity markets.
Longs are pumping hard... they feel victorious and pompous. very good. lets get everyone in calls first before the drop.
every hour Hormuz is closed, 0.5 million barrels are removed from market, with a billion barrels already lost. iran is currently calling for economic jihad, and houthis are threatening bab al-mandab which will take another 10% offline.
bulls have false sense of confidence from high price, but it's fake, just algorithms momo trading. The drop is within 4 weeks for sure. relax bears, our time is coming.