Key insights
- A gig worker highlights Nextdoor's potential due to its hyper-local focus and growing self-serve ad revenue. The author suggests Nextdoor could capitalize on the shifting labor market by connecting skilled workers with local needs. While not a high-conviction idea, the post points to Nextdoor's strong cash position and user base as potential growth drivers, especially with AI integration. Upcoming earnings may provide further insights.
I'm going to preface this by saying that I am not an investor. I'm not one to speculate on valuations, nor do I spend much time researching; however, when you run across something that seems too good to be true, you post it on reddit so everyone can shoot you down and bring you back to reality. I am open for discussion, but I know very little about stock valuations.
Today, I operate a personal grocery service, and I've spent the last three years in the "gig economy" to the tune of 9,000 orders or so. When I first started gig work, I realized the chaos in the system which led me to create an alternative: shopping for people in my neighborhood - diets, nutrition, meal plans - it's a lot easier when you know the customer. I mainly shop at one store, affluent neighborhood, and my primary customers are seniors, busy families, and rich lazy people. Some customers get referred to me by store managers and employees. No app necessary. Relationships.
When looking for advertising alternatives outside of my personally branded t-shirts and community connections, Nextdoor felt like the most logical option. It's hyper-local, real people, household needs, and bypasses the middleman mentality of the platforms like Instacart and DoorDash. What I see is the Nextdoor ecosystem having the potential of real growth as the labor market continues to shift; the entrepreneur-minded individual offering household-related skills and service to neighborhoods.
Nextdoor does have an earnings report coming up at the beginning of May, which should be interesting since their last one. The one thing I noticed is that they grew self-serve revenue by 32% last year, and they're sitting on $400m in cash with no debt. I don't see this as a moonshot stock, but when it comes to basic human needs, I see Nextdoor being in an advantageous position with 1 in 3 households on their platform. With the right direction, leveraging AI, and tapping into skilled labor, I think they have something here.
From what I do see, and from my own experience, it's a launching pad for someone who lost their job to methodically build their own business and keep it localized to their zip code. Being a "neighbor" has a competitive advantage. My space is personal grocery, and I'm just one tiny little cog. I see Nextdoor as the trusted alternative to household-related services when it comes to gig work, and at its current valuation, it appears nobody is noticing or someone needs the price to stay down.
I have no idea, nor would I speculate, what it should be valued at, but in my opinion, Nextdoor has more growth opportunities than Instacart and DoorDash, maybe even combined. I've always felt that the gig platforms are the epitome of the commoditization of labor, and Nextdoor is (potentially) the alternative.