Key insights
- The author expresses strong FOMO for missing the semiconductor rally, particularly in names like NVDA and ASML. They acknowledge successful trades earlier in the year but lament not sizing up in the AI infrastructure buildout. This sentiment highlights the potential for narrative-driven markets to overshadow fundamental analysis, potentially leading to misallocation of capital and increased risk-taking in late-stage rallies.
I’m up for the year, and did a few things correctly such as admitting I was wrong about PYPL and sold around $59 last year. Sizing up in consumer staples early this year and largely avoided the early year market turmoil.
I even went in big with leaps on NVDA and some software names during the late march dip this year (MSFT, ORCL, PANW). So far those positions have shown good returns.
But this semi cap rally and the compute bottleneck trade. I’m telling you I completely missed out. I feel so so bad for not catching it. I only had some asml shares which are up 100% but I didn’t even size up during the whole time. This fomo feeling has gotten so bad that I even prayed for a oil shock so I can load up on semi cap names such as lam research as I had realized the AI infra buildout phase is going to be much longer that what most people expect.
I think my mind is clouded so I didn’t do much lately. The only things I added recently are some precious metals play (silver, senior gold miner) and med tech as I think they are over punished for no reason. My reflection on my all my recent buy decisions is that I think they are cheap and fundamentals hasn’t really changed. But this market is making me think fundamentals mean very little compared to trading the narrative .
Anyways I just wanted to vent. Missing out on this insane rally really hit me hard and I feel like shit.