Key insights
- Bessent anticipates substantial disinflation despite near-term hot inflation numbers, citing the transient nature of supply shocks. This suggests a potential shift in the inflation narrative, which could influence Fed policy expectations and positively impact US equities if disinflation materializes as predicted, potentially leading to a less hawkish monetary policy.
“I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock, and we can, we can look through that, because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down,” Bessent told CNBC’s Joe Kernen from the sidelines of President Donald Trump’s summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. “So I think core inflation will continue coming down.”
Does this not sound like Biden & Co saying that the post-COVID inflation shock was "transitory"?
Bessent said he thinks there will be one or two more “hot inflation numbers, but then I think we’re going to see substantial disinflation.” > >“I was never on team transitory during Covid,” Bessent said. “We’ll get to the other side of this, and I don’t know whether it’s a few days or a few weeks, and energy inflation will come back down.”