Key insights
- The post highlights Shift4 (FOUR) as undervalued compared to PayPal (PYPL) based on EV/EBITDA multiples. The author notes substantial debt but finds it manageable. Recent insider buying by the CEO at higher prices is seen as a positive signal. This could lead to a short-term positive impact on FOUR's stock price and potentially other payment processing companies.
Shift4 (FOUR) is yet another cheap payments company.
By my calculations (assuming preferreds convert in 2028 at full quantity due to share price being < $81), FOUR is currently at 7.7X EV/2026E EBITDA. For comparison, PYPL is about 9X on the same metric and seems to be pretty popular around here. Debt is substantial but seems to be manageable.
Meanwhile the founder/CEO bought shares last month at 13% higher prices than current.
Overall, payments seems like an uncertain place to be, but this seems rather cheap and with an intriguing signal from management. Any other viewpoints on FOUR?