Key insights
- The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April plunged to 47.6, significantly below the expected 52.0 and the lowest on record. Both current conditions and future expectations deteriorated. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% from 3.8% last month, while five-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.2%. This suggests weakening consumer confidence and rising inflation concerns, which could negatively impact consumer spending and overall economic growth, leading to bearish implications for US equities.
- Prior month 53.3 * Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8% * Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2% * Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5% * 1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month * 5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month
Needless to say, the war in Iran is having its impact on the survey data. The data is the worst on record.