Key insights
- Iran stated the Iran-Oman Hormuz protocol will not apply during wartime, citing ongoing conflict and restrictions imposed on "US-Israeli aggressors." This raises geopolitical risk and potential disruption to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While the immediate market reaction may be muted, the medium-term implications for oil prices and global trade are bearish for the S&P 500 due to increased uncertainty and potential supply shocks.
"[Kazem Gharibabadi] noted that Iran is currently in a state of war and that it is unrealistic to expect peacetime rules to apply under such conditions. Referring to US-Israeli aggressors and their supporters, he said restrictions and limitations have naturally been imposed as a result of the conflict."
As has happened many times, the market rallies prematurely (in my opinion) on the headline soundbytes, and has not (in my opinion) priced in the medium and long term disruption risk.
I remain bearish on the S&P, and bullish on short term OXY call options for cash flow flips into a sliding S&P.