Key insights
- The author believes the recent sell-off in software stocks is overdone, driven by fear of AI and negative sentiment. They anticipate companies will sandbag guidance, cut costs, and then surprise positively in the upcoming earnings season. The author is long APP and NOW, expecting a rebound. This contrarian view suggests a potential short-term bullish catalyst for beaten-down software names.
you guys are actually regarded, software is down 30–40% YTD and NOW you decide “yeah this is where i sell” because twitter and CNBC boomers told you AI is killing SaaS
let me remind you that these companies will make a monster come back by EOY. most of these companies report in ~4–6 weeks, already had a FULL quarter to reset expectations, guidance and expectations are already nuked and sentiment = everyone bearish at the same time
all the CEOs and management are about to...
- sandbag last quarter
- cut costs
- reset expectations
next call:
“AI is actually driving efficiency” “pipelines improving” “enterprise stabilizing”
all the clown analysts will upgrade the stock AFTER the move as always
MY POSITIONS
APP (AppLovin)
- 100 shares @ 401 * sold 430 CC (5/8 earnings week) * bought 430 call (4/17) as a run-up play
i’m positioning for a slow grind-up, IV expansion, and 15% moves up
NOW (ServiceNow)
- 100 shares @ 93 * sold 80 put
if it dumps → i buy more if it rips → i keep premium
this is called having a theta brain
TLDR:
stop dumping software and help my heavy bags going into earnings season