Key insights
- The author expresses strong concerns about the current market environment, citing high valuations, persistent inflation driven by geopolitical events, and potential Fed rate hikes. They believe the "buy the dip" mentality reflects complacency and that the US economy is vulnerable. The author suggests caution and selling overpriced assets, anticipating potential market downturn.
Ask yourself Are we better or worse off after this war?
I’d argue worse off, certainly the consumer of nearly every country is worse off now than before.
Let’s not even think about if this ceasefire will last…
Oil hits energy,transportation, food…everything. Inflation is going to storm the US because of that decision to terrorize Iran.
So Costs of everything go up, operating costs across the board up.Companies start failing to hit expectations, etc
Fed then has to increase rates which will shock negatively which could replicate 2022 times.
Additionally the American Rep has never been so low. Canadians, danish, all allies have see a staggering decrease in regards to impressions/reliability of the US
We tariffed our allies who hold our currency in the trillions because we felt like it, America now caused our allies to pay a premium for oil on top of tariffs.
The economy was struggling with the cost of living. Many people will be caught off guard when prices of food skyrocket 15 percent and gas stays at elevated prices for several months.
The stock market is Very expensive and overvalued, by the dip is the ultimate form of complacency. Insider trading is rampant and most investors are completely desensitized by that.
Overall stay invested in good positions but sell things you believe are overpriced
220 percent on buffet indicator, staggering numbers of new investors, margin is still rampant, delusional asset owners believing things can’t go down after skyrocketing up(especially housing). Inflation that will further hurt the already withering Middle class, 1/5 years are typical bear markets. American reputation is shattered abroad and internally.
From what I see, I don’t feel confident in investing at these prices. These *deals* are historically high PE compounded with complacent buy the dip attitudes instead of buying at fair or good prices.
I don’t know if this is the start of a massive bullrun, a crash, a bear market. Nobody knows. This is just my opinion