Key insights
- The author expresses concern about Microsoft's upcoming earnings, questioning the justification for their capital expenditures. They are skeptical of Copilot's competitiveness against alternatives like Claude and Gemini, suggesting potential underperformance. The author notes MSFT's underperformance relative to the NASDAQ over the past year, leading to hesitation about investing even for the long term. This sentiment could negatively impact MSFT's stock price post-earnings.
Feels like they are going to get punished more come the earnings. Not sure where they're spending their Capex at this point... Any news that I missed may give me a reason to believe their capex is justified?
Honestly, Copilot... I was told a bunch of companies are asking employees to use it, but they'd either use Claude or Gemini at the very least. Even for myself I never thought of using Copilot as an alternative because it's so buns imo. Are they even spending their large ass capex to improve this or it's getting the Bethesda/Zenimax abandonment?
1 Year NASDAQ as of 4/20/26 ~ 45.5%
1 Year MSFT as of 4/20/26 ~ 13.42%
I was thinking of maybe investing in it, but even as a long-term, I don't know, maybe there are better alternatives?