Key insights
- The author argues against a broad "tech bubble," citing fundamental differences from the dot-com era. Tech adoption is widespread, and bottlenecks are shifting from technology itself to compute power and energy, which are addressable. The author anticipates rapid advancements in AI, robotics, and automation, leading to global manufacturing shifts and increased productivity. While individual companies may be overvalued, the overall sector is unlikely to collapse.
Seeing lots of posts about a new “tech bubble.” I think that’s a bit oversimplified.
I went through the first bubble, and there were some considerable differences. One of the most important was that the tech bubble was the first real push for our society to leave “analogue” and go digital. Even Gen X, the generation that created and pushed a lot of what we use now, was suspicious of it.
Even so, and I know this is a bit overgeneralized, but in a nutshell, the tech “bubble,” aka the future being promised as now, really wasn’t. It hit the end of its leash, and it became apparent that the bottleneck for tech was actually tech itself. Bubble burst.
Right now, we are at a more interesting point in our history. We are no longer suspicious of tech, and are so dependent that vast swaths of society would become virtually retarded without it. Whatever suspicions Gen X and the Baby Groomers had are all but gone. Even those who decry tech and decide to buy goats and make cheese in the backwoods of Idaho simply don’t have the sway to turn humanity back.
The current bottleneck of tech is only partly tech, mainly compute, but quantum looks promising even if that sector is shit tons of hype. The largest bottleneck is power, but we can solve that pretty quickly and most likely will. Tech will actually be able to do much of what it is promising. It will build AI-controlled robots that can manufacture garments, take out our trash, mow lawns, drive taxis, do our taxes, coding, and reduce man-hours at all corporate levels, including legal the list goes on.
This tech will reach the entire world. Imagine dropping a factory in the middle of Mozambique with a micro nuclear reactor, security drones working 24/7, local labor can be used for what the robots can't build for $0.10 and hour.
This is all going to happen very quickly. So while an individual company might be overvalued, I don’t think that means an entire sector is going to pop.
I think the bigger problem is what are all the what are the people who find themselves dislocated from society going to do and how are the rest of us going to deal with it.
You've probably already figured it out, but I'm a retard, do your own dd.