Key insights
- Brazil's record April trade surplus, driven by commodity exports, points to continued strength in the Brazilian economy. While seemingly distant, rising commodity prices, particularly oil, could contribute to global inflationary pressures, indirectly influencing US monetary policy and potentially impacting US equities. The article also mentions analysts revising upward their forecasts for the country’s trade surplus this year amid pressure on oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
BRASILIA, May 7 (Reuters) - Brazil’s trade surplus jumped 37.5% in April from a year earlier to $10.5 billion, a record for that month, government data showed on Thursday, buoyed by strong shipments of key commodities including soybeans, crude oil, iron ore and beef.
The result, however, was below the $10.9 billion median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
Exports rose 14.3% from a year earlier to $34.1 billion, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.
The rise in exports was driven by sharply higher shipments of soybeans, crude oil, iron ore and beef, which were up in value by 18.8%, 10.6%, 19.5% and 29.4%, respectively.
Imports increased 6.2% in April to $23.6 billion.
In the first four months of the year, Brazil’s trade surplus climbed 43.5% to $24.8 billion.
Analysts have been revising upward their forecasts for the country’s trade surplus this year amid pressure on oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse and Latin America’s largest economy, is also a net exporter of crude oil.
Last month, the government projected a 2026 trade surplus of $72.1 billion, noting the estimate did not yet factor in the impact of persistently higher oil prices through the rest of the year.