Key insights
- The author anticipates a negative market reaction following Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, citing a historical pattern of stock declines after his appearances. They suggest taking profits on stocks at all-time highs before the speech and express concern about potential losses on call options for companies like Amazon and Microsoft if they sell before a potential price spike. The author believes global economic concerns exacerbate the risk of a market correction.
Every time Jerome Powell has spoken the past two years, stocks took a major noise dive. I don’t see this time being any different, given how everything this up so much but we seam on the verge of a huge correction again, given the situation all over the world now with oil price and inflation.
I do believe in the companies reporting right after he speaks is the problem. Major players give their earnings reports an hour after he ruins expectations for everyone on the current market. He never says anything uplifting and promising, and given this is his last, I don’t see him doing anything different. He can stumble over a simpler drive through order and only see him ruining Wednesday and however long afterwards until it all comes back up.
But if I would of taken everything out the day before he spoke, then bought right back the day after, I would have literally 4 times the money I do now just off the past 18-24 months of him speaking.
What are y’all’s thoughts? I know several reporting Wednesday after his speaks are already at all time highs so good to take some profit anyway as a lot will do anyway, causing a pullback, but some haven’t gone up near what I think they should be at, such as Amazon and MSFT, which I would hate to get out of those call options for them to finally spike like I have been hoping.