Key insights
- The article suggests that despite the S&P 500 reaching record highs, it's rarely too late for long-term investors. It highlights that even after significant pullbacks or during periods of economic concern, the index has historically recovered and set new highs. The piece uses past bear markets as examples, implying that patience can lead to eventual gains, even after investing at perceived peaks.
After falling around 9% from its all-time high in March, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.13%) sharply reversed course and continued setting new records in April and May. Year to date, the index is up 9%.
After double-digit gains in 2023, 2024, and 2025, investors who've missed out on any part of this rally might feel like it's too dangerous to put money in stocks at record highs. In times like these, you often hear the refrain: "It's too late."
The truth is that if you're a long-term investor, it's almost never too late. Even if you invest at the peak of some of the worst bear markets in history, your chances of experiencing another eventual new high are pretty darn good!
2026 is a good example of what can happen during more normal market conditions. Even with concerns about inflation, the Iran war, and the growing belief that the Fed won't be able to cut interest rates this year, the S&P 500 has set 24 new all-time closing highs so far this year. Even if you'd invested right before the 9% pullback earlier this year, you would have been back to breakeven within a month.
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Clearly, setting an all-time high doesn't preclude the S&P 500 from setting a new all-time high very quickly.
But the worst-case scenario is what investors worry about: the massive bear markets that take years, not days, to recover from. How about those situations?
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There have been three major extended bear markets this century -- the tech bubble, the financial crisis, and the 2022 Fed-induced bear. Granted, it would have taken years and a lot of patience to ride these bear markets out. But if you had, you would have recovered completely. If you'd stayed invested, you would have actually been sitting on some solid gains!