Key insights
- A recent poll indicates a tight race between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's upcoming presidential election. While Lula leads in first-round simulations, a simulated runoff shows a statistical tie. Markets are closely monitoring the polls, especially after Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son. Political uncertainty in Brazil can indirectly influence global investor sentiment and risk appetite, potentially leading to minor negative impacts on US equities.
SAO PAULO, April 27 (Reuters) - Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a simulated runoff for this year’s presidential election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.
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Leftist Lula would receive 46% of the vote in a second-round matchup, compared with 45% for right-wing Bolsonaro.
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In a March survey, they were tied at 46% each.
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In three first-round simulations, Lula was seen capturing 41% of the vote, while Flavio would take between 36% and 38%, depending on other candidates.
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In Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote, which has happened in every election since 2002.
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Markets have tracked polls closely since imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son Flavio, 44, in December.
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The 80-year-old Lula, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, will seek a fourth non-consecutive term as president.
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Nexus surveyed 2,028 people between April 24-26. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.