20M - $45K+ (New Addition & Add More)

REDDIT.COMMay 27, 10:56 PM UTC

Key insights

  • The author highlights new and increased positions in GE Vernova (GEV), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Bullish thesis for GEV centers on gas turbines for data centers and potential in small modular reactors. Increased position in NOC is based on defense sector growth, particularly Northrop Grumman's portfolio quality. Increased position in NVDA is not explained.
20M - $45K+ (New Addition & Add More)

|Rank|Ticker|Company name|Shares|Price|Total equity owned| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |1|AVGO|Broadcom Inc.|12.04|$422.60|$5,088.10| |2|AMZN|Amazon.com, Inc.|18.00|$272.95|$4,913.10| |3|TSM|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.|10.06|$422.83|$4,253.67| |4|SPGI|S&P Global Inc.|9.03|$415.80|$3,754.67| |5|NVDA|NVIDIA Corporation|17.00|$212.25|$3,608.25| |6|GE|GE Aerospace|10.01|$318.00|$3,183.18| |7|META|Meta Platforms, Inc.|5.01|$633.50|$3,173.84| |8|NOC|Northrop Grumman Corporation|5.00|$555.45|$2,777.25| |9|CAT|Caterpillar Inc.|3.01|$910.05|$2,739.25| |10|GOOGL|Alphabet Inc.|6.01|$390.00|$2,343.90| |11|GS|The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.|2.00|$997.00|$1,994.00| |12|GEV|GE Vernova Inc.|1.00|$1,034.50|$1,034.50|

New Addition: GE Vernova (GEV) (will buy more to $2-3K)

Natural gas is the leading energy source to power data centers, so GEV's portfolio contained gas turbines is a natural winner here. There is also factor of switch costs, once the plant purchase GEV's gas turbines they also have to buy the same electrical components and servicing revenue to come. I don't think large nuclear plants are viable solutions to energy shortage, because it takes too long to build out, this is why I ruled out Westinghouse. However, small modular reactors (SMRs) could be a medium term play, which something like NuScale with approval could thrive. However, I would still lean towards GEV's portfolio including GE-Hitachi SMR currently in production partnered with BWXT, who have history of high level reliability (reactors for US military) to win in this commercial race. My thesis concludes that GEV's portfolio is highly exposed to winning areas. I am also bullish on BWXT.

Add more: Northrop Grumman (NOC) & NVIDIA (NVDA)

I recommend people watch the Steve Eisman's podcast on defense sector. To sum up, I think out of all the defense primes, Northrop Grumman's portfolio have the highest quality for growth early in the cycle. B-21 bomber replacing B-2 Spirit fleet, replacing ballistic missiles, roughly third of F-35 systems which is now a cash cow value area replacing F-16. I am not against LMT or RTX, but LMT looks unattractive to me from previous mismanagement of F-35, and as Silicon Valley's defense startup start competing with defense primes, the Iran War only proved how "exquisite" weapons can be ineffective to cheap effective weapons like drones. Essentially, future of F-35 that makes up 30% of revenue for LMT can be put into question in near future. On the other hand, RTX trade at a premium for having Pratt & Whitney engines as diversification from pure play into some commercial exposure. I don't believe in paying a premium for diversification if it bad. Aviation engines most important characteristic is reliability not price, as recalls ramped up for unreliable engines from RTX this serve as a burden in my view that can ramp up cost a lot of RTX. This is why I prefer GE Aerospace (GE) so take my bias into account.

I thought NVDA's earning was great, I am excited for Vera (ARM-based CPU) to compete with Intel, AMD. I think at $200~ area is buyable.

A lot of the stocks in my portfolio are up a lot. I wouldn't necessary pay the same price for them now. I am also happy with buying $2000 of Amphenol on my alt account up 17% last week.

Thank you for reading, let me know some suggestions why my thesis is right and wrong. Give me other stocks why it better.

Continue reading on REDDIT.COM

Related Articles