Key insights
- CMB.Tech CEO suggests reopening the Strait of Hormuz presents uncertainty for tanker rates. While a restocking rush could increase rates, a slow resumption of Middle East exports coupled with vessels returning to availability may cause oversupply and lower rates. Shift of freight tonnage toward the Atlantic and the sustainability of strong U.S. export volumes are also weighing on rates. Limited bearish influence on US equities due to potential negative impact on energy sector.
Investing.com - The head of Belgian tanker firm CMB.Tech said on Tuesday that uncertainty remains over whether reopening the Strait of Hormuz would cause freight rates to rise or fall, despite the current boom in the tanker market.
CEO Alexander Saverys told Reuters that one common view suggests a reopening would trigger a restocking rush that would overwhelm available tanker supply and push rates higher. The comments came after CMB.Tech tripled its first-quarter core profit as the disruption drove up freight rates and vessel prices.
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Saverys warned that markets may be underestimating how slowly oil exports from the Middle East would resume and overlooking the volume of vessels that would quickly return to availability. This could create an oversupply and send rates lower, he said.
The shift of freight tonnage toward the Atlantic is already weighing on rates, Saverys said, as ships that previously traded through the Gulf reposition themselves to ship oil from the U.S., Brazil and West Africa.
Rates have declined from their peaks, though vessels are still earning $80,000 to $120,000 per day, Saverys said.
Saverys added that another open question is how long strong U.S. export volumes, driven by large releases of oil reserves, can be sustained.
CMB.Tech, rebranded from Euronav in October 2024, has benefited from the Hormuz closure, which curtailed available shipping tonnage and drove up spot freight rates while boosting sale prices of older vessels.