Key insights
- Yardeni Research views any S&P 500 pullback as a buying opportunity, maintaining an 8,250 year-end target. Strong first-quarter earnings, particularly in tech, support this outlook. However, risks include a potential Fed shift to a tightening bias and a July rate hike, rising Treasury yields, and potential oil price spikes and SpaceX IPO volatility. Despite these concerns, subdued sentiment ratios suggest any correction may be modest.
Investing.com -- Yardeni Research said any near-term pullback in the S&P 500 should be treated as a buying opportunity, maintaining its year-end target of 8,250 even as the firm flagged several risks that could weigh on equities in the coming weeks.
The S&P 500 has rallied 19.1% since bottoming on March 30, led by a 44.5% surge in the Information Technology sector, driven by what Yardeni calls Fabulous Earnings Momentum, or FEMO, during the first-quarter earnings season.
S&P 500 forward earnings are up 26.6% year over year through May, which the firm described as among the strongest readings on record outside of post-recession recoveries.
Despite its constructive longer-term view, Yardeni cited several near-term concerns. The firm expects the Federal Open Market Committee to shift from an easing to a tightening bias at its next meeting, followed by a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, ahead of market expectations for a hike later in the year.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.08%, above the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75%, which Yardeni said anticipates tighter policy ahead.
The firm also flagged oil price risks, warnings from Exxon and Chevron executives of a potential spike to $150 a barrel, and possible volatility surrounding the SpaceX IPO.
"We view any pullback as a buying opportunity and maintain our 8,250 target for the S&P 500 by year-end," Yardeni wrote, adding that its two favored bull/bear sentiment ratios remain relatively subdued, suggesting any correction should be modest.