Key insights
- The author expresses concerns about stretched bond markets, potential disruptions from Japan, rising inflation, and an energy shock. They believe the Fed is trapped and the stock market is detached from reality, driven by large-cap capex. They also highlight potential issues in private equity. The overall sentiment is bearish, suggesting a negative influence on US equities due to macro headwinds and market distortions.
I have currently 20% 0-1 treasuries, 5% cash and the rest is in the stock market.
-Bond market makes me nervous. It is quite a bit streched It is a systematic problem and not local but globally which makes things actually even worse.
- We have no experience on Japan Bond market disruptions
- The fact that Trump will pump the market regardless of what happens till elections.
- Oil supply- energy shock getting worse
- Inflation getting higher
- Fed is kinda trapped
- Stock market is totally detached from reality and driven by only the capex of the big boys.
- cyclicals are ATH...
What is this now ? How should one play this one?
Almost forget: Private Equity side smells also bad, but no one knows whats happening inside