Key insights
- The article questions Tesla's current $1.2 trillion valuation, arguing that even highly optimistic future scenarios (e.g., $50B annual profit by 2035) only justify the current price, leaving little room for stock appreciation. The author seeks concrete bullish projections, highlighting a potential disconnect between current market expectations and achievable future financial performance, suggesting a bearish outlook for future shareholder returns.
I’m genuinely trying to understand the math.
Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion today. Current numbers are approximately: Revenue: ~$100B/year Net income: ~$4B/year Revenue growth: roughly flat over the past year P/E: ~300x
Let’s assume Tesla achieves enormous success. By 2035: FSD works. Robotaxis are widely deployed. Optimus becomes a real business. Energy keeps growing. Tesla becomes one of the most successful companies in history. What does that actually translate to in dollars? If Tesla eventually earns $50B/year, that would be about 12x current earnings.
A mature company earning $50B might reasonably trade around 20–30x earnings, implying a valuation of roughly $1–1.5T if some growth is still expected.
In other words, even after delivering one of the greatest business success stories ever, the result seems to be that today’s valuation is merely justified but no room for actual stock growth. So where does the shareholder return come from?Because at $50B profit, it feels like I’m mostly getting validation of today’s price rather than substantial upside. What specific numbers are Tesla bulls expecting? . To be clear I’m looking for answers from someone who invested and what is their projection and why And what concretely make you think it’s not a good investment rather than Elon haters or fans or AI or “Tesla isn’t a car company.”