Key insights
- The article discusses potential scenarios for Alphabet's SpaceX stake upon SpaceX's IPO. These include a spin-off to shareholders, holding the shares as an investment, or selling the stake for cash. While a spin-off would be most beneficial to shareholders, the author believes Alphabet is more likely to retain or sell the shares, using the capital for AI or other ventures. This could provide a minor boost to Alphabet's earnings.
With SpaceX filing for an IPO this year, I’ve been trying to wrap my head around what this could mean for Alphabet shareholders.
For those who haven't been tracking this, Alphabet famously put $900 million into SpaceX back in 2015 for roughly a 7.5% stake, although there have been rumours it is closer to 10%.
Does that mean GOOG/GOOGL holders will see a proportionate number of SpaceX shares land in their portfolio or will it simply be an asset that Alphabet can choose to hold or sell to fund building more datacenters?
I guess there are 3 potential scenarios:
-
Spin-Off: Alphabet could distribute its SpaceX shares to us as a special dividend (similar to how some companies spin off subsidiaries)? If so, we’d The "Spin-off" Scenario: Does Alphabet distribute its SpaceX shares to us as a special dividend (similar to how some companies spin off subsidiaries)? If so, we’d suddenly find SpaceX ticker symbols in our brokerage accounts.
-
Hodl: Google just keeps the shares on their balance sheet as a long-term investment? This would mean the value is reflected in Alphabet’s stock price, but we never actually "own" the SpaceX shares ourselves.
-
Alphabet Cashes Out: Sells some or all of their stake during the IPO to pad their cash reserves for more AI/Waymo CapEx, and we just see a massive one-time bump in earnings?
Personally, I’d love to see a direct distribution, but given how protective Google is of its "Other Bets" and strategic partnerships (especially with the xAI merger news), but I am doubtful.
anyone more knowledgeable than I have a point of view?