Key insights
- The post advocates a contrarian investment strategy, suggesting that retail investor sentiment on a popular online forum is a reliable inverse indicator of market direction. The author claims significant gains by betting against the prevailing bearish sentiment. While simplistic, the core idea highlights the potential value of sentiment analysis as a leading indicator, particularly when extreme pessimism persists despite market strength.
It's literally that simple. I'm up 1400% since about 4 weeks ago buying calls that were expiring a couple months out just because this entire sub was 100,000% certain we were going down.
"But oil is going up guys! It has to go down!"
"Guys the president is bad! The market will go down!"
"Guys my finance text books told me the market will go down! We're going down!"
All of that is literally irrelevant. The market always (and if you're careful and smart enough, you'll notice this) inverses sentiment. When everyone is sure the market will go one way, it always goes the opposite way. In fact, it's the most reliable indication.
Despite the market nearing ATHs, people here are still thinking it's only a matter of time we're going to go down, and so we're going to keep going up.
This is literally so easy and yet most of you still won't do this and will continue to think "orange man bad, stock market go down", it's hilarious how people make the same mistakes over and over and still call themselves smart.