Key insights
- The author argues that AI's primary threat to Adobe isn't direct software competition, but the erosion of its user base as AI increasingly automates creative jobs. This could lead to a decline in demand for Adobe's expensive software subscriptions, especially among non-professional users. While Adobe may not face bankruptcy, its long-term growth prospects are viewed negatively due to this shift.
People can invest how they want, but these are my personal thoughts on why I would not go near adobe. I thought I would share them because I think people don't recognize the real the threat AI poses to adobe.
When people talk about the threat that AI poses to adobe, they come from the angle that AI will compete with adobe's software. This argument is not wrong, but IMO, this is not the biggest threat that AI poses.
The biggest threat that AI poses is killing off adobe's user base.
AI has already started taking creative jobs, and it will only continue. Creative jobs like graphic design have always been heavily saturated too.
Think about it, if AI keeps taking creative jobs, which it will, who will be buying expensive adobe software in the future? Will the 19 year old guy sat at home making memes be paying for an adobe subscription? I think not.
Keep in mind also that the vast majority of adobe customers do not even like adobe or their software, but are stuck using it because they have to use it for their work, or because there are no better alternatives.
In the short term, sure, they may have good fundamentals, and the price may seem attractive. But honestly, I see a bleak future for adobe. They wont go bankrupt, and maybe you will make some money on it, but IMO its not worth the risk and there are much better places to put your money to work.
Background - Used adobe products since I was like 13 years old, and studied graphic design at university.